Short Term Load Forecasting New Year Celebration Holiday Using Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Inference System (Case Study: Java – Bali Electrical System)

Jamaaluddin, Jamaaluddin and Robandi, Imam (2016) Short Term Load Forecasting New Year Celebration Holiday Using Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Inference System (Case Study: Java – Bali Electrical System). Global Conference on Engineering and Applied Science, 2 (1). p. 645. ISSN 978 986 5654 24 5

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Abstract

Celebration of New Year In the Indonesian is constituted the one of the visit Indonesian’s tourism. This event course changes the load of electrical energy. The electrical energy providers that control and operation of electrical in Java and Bali (Java, Bali Electrical System) is required to be able to ensure continuity of load demand at this time, and forecast for the future. Short-term load forecasting very need to be supported by computational methods for simulation and validation. The one of computation’s methods is Interval Type – 2 Fuzzy Inference System (IT-2 FIS). Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Inference System (IT-2 FIS) as the development of methods of Interval Type-1 Fuzzy Inference System (IT-1 FIS), it is appropriate to be used in load forecasting because it has the advantages that very flexible on the change of the footprint of uncertainty (FOU), so it supports to establish an initial processing of the time series, computing, simulation and validation of system models. Forecasting methods used in this research are IT-2 FIS. The process for to know and analyzing the peak load a day is the specially day and 4 days before New year Celebration in the previous year continued analysis by using IT-2 FIS will be obtained at the peak load forecasting New Year Celebration in the coming year. This research shown the average of error value in 2012, 2013 and 2014 is 0,642%. This value is better than using the IT-1 FIS which has a value of error to 0.649%. This research concluded that IT-2 FIS can be used in Short Term Load Forecasting.

Item Type:	Article
Subjects:	T Technology > TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
Divisions:	Faculty of Engineering > School of Electronics Engineering
Depositing User:	Jamaaluddin Jamaaluddin
Date Deposited:	28 Jan 2020 07:18
Last Modified:	28 Jan 2020 07:18
URI:	http://eprints.umsida.ac.id/id/eprint/6667

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