Dustmirzaevich, Juraev Farrukh and ugli, Doliev Shokhabbos Kulmurot (2026) Assessing the Stability of Regional Energy Supply Systems: Econometric Models and Forecasts. American Journal of Economics and Business Management, 9 (9). ISSN 2576-5973

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Abstract

This study investigates the econometric modeling and forecasting of energy consumption dynamics within the energy supply system. Per capita primary energy consumption was selected as the indicator of energy consumption in the energy supply system, and the analysis was conducted using annual data covering the period from 1990 to 2025. First, the descriptive statistical characteristics of the indicator were assessed, revealing an overall declining trend in energy consumption over the study period. The dynamics of energy consumption were modeled using the ARIMA(1,1,3) model, and the forecasting accuracy of the model was evaluated using the MAPE, MAE, and RMSE metrics. The estimated ARIMA(1,1,3) specification yields R² = 0.93, while the forecast evaluation reports MAPE = 3.14%, MAE = 597.96 kWh/person, and RMSE = 749.64 kWh/person. The baseline forecast indicates a decline in per capita primary energy consumption from 15,355.95 kWh/person in 2026 to 13,760.47 kWh/person in 2030, equivalent to approximately 86.3% of the 2025 level. The results demonstrate the usefulness of a transparent time-series benchmark for short- and medium-term energy planning while also highlighting the need to interpret forecasts conditionally on historical dynamics.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Energy supply system, energy consumption, primary energy consumption, econometric modeling, ARIMA model, forecasting, MAPE, MAE, RMSE
Subjects:	H Social Sciences
Depositing User:	admin eprints
Date Deposited:	29 Sep 2026 04:21
Last Modified:	29 Sep 2026 04:21
URI:	http://eprints.umsida.ac.id/id/eprint/17128

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