Stock Prediction

Prathamesh, Waghmare and Harish, Murumkar and Kulbhushan, Murumkar and Himanshu, Shelke and Prof. Shreya, Bhanse (2024) Stock Prediction. International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development, 8 (5). pp. 990-998. ISSN 2456-6470

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Abstract

In recent years, the financial landscape has witnessed an exponential growth in the volume of data generated daily, leading to increased interest in leveraging machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) for stock market prediction. This project aims to develop a robust predictive model that utilizes historical stock data, market indicators, and sentiment analysis from social media platforms to forecast stock prices. The objective is to enhance the accuracy of predictions and provide investors with actionable insights for informed decision-making. The methodology encompasses a multi-faceted approach. Initially, data is collected from various sources, including historical stock price databases, financial news articles, and social media sentiment analysis using natural language processing (NLP). The dataset is pre-processed to eliminate noise and inconsistencies, ensuring high-quality input for the predictive models. Key features are engineered based on technical indicators such as moving averages, relative strength index (RSI), and trading volumes, as well as sentiment scores derived from text analysis. For model development, several machine learning algorithms are employed, including linear regression, decision trees, random forests, and recurrent neural networks (RNNs). Each model is evaluated based on its predictive accuracy using metrics such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). Furthermore, the ensemble learning technique is explored to combine multiple models for improved performance. The project also emphasizes the importance of model interpretability, as understanding the factors driving predictions is crucial for investor confidence. Tools such as SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values are utilized to provide insights into feature contributions, allowing stakeholders to grasp the rationale behind specific predictions. Results indicate that the hybrid model, which incorporates both historical data and sentiment analysis, significantly outperforms traditional models that rely solely on historical stock prices. The predictive accuracy achieved through this integrated approach demonstrates the potential for AI-driven analytics in financial markets. Additionally, the project reveals that market sentiment can serve as a leading indicator, influencing stock movements in ways not captured by historical data alone. This research contributes to the growing body of knowledge on AI applications in finance, providing a framework that can be adapted for various stocks and market conditions.

Item Type:	Article
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD28 Management. Industrial Management
Divisions:	Postgraduate > Master's of Islamic Education
Depositing User:	Journal Editor
Date Deposited:	26 Oct 2024 09:11
Last Modified:	26 Oct 2024 09:11
URI:	http://eprints.umsida.ac.id/id/eprint/14423

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