Forecasting the Rainfall of Anambra State using Timeseries Model

Victor C., Chukwunenye and Confidence I., Nwokedi and Frederick A., Omoruyi and Chukwuenyem E., Onyenekwe (2024) Forecasting the Rainfall of Anambra State using Timeseries Model. International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development, 8 (1). pp. 1056-1060. ISSN 2456-6470

Text ijtsrd64560.pdf Download (904kB)

Abstract

This study employed time series analysis to forecast rainfall data obtained from Anambra State obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency. Using SPSS's Time Series Expert Modeler, a simple seasonal exponential smoothing model was identified as the most suitable for the dataset. The model adequately explained variations in rainfall and passes validation tests, including the Ljung-Box test. A 12–month forecast from September 2023 to August 2024 was conducted, and the results are discussed. While the Time Series Expert Modeler may not always provide optimal models, it proves effective in this analysis. Manual model exploration remains valuable if the automated approach fails to meet criteria.

Item Type:	Article
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Divisions:	Postgraduate > Master's of Islamic Education
Depositing User:	Journal Editor
Date Deposited:	17 May 2024 03:08
Last Modified:	17 May 2024 03:08
URI:	http://eprints.umsida.ac.id/id/eprint/13743

Actions (login required)

View Item